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Naftan vs Arsenal Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 14:45

Naftan

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

Arsenal

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-110.8%0-29.8%0-35.9%0-4+4.1%1 1-06.0%1-110.9%1-29.9%1-36.0%1-4+4.1%2 2-03.0%2-15.5%2-25.0%2-33.0%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.0%3-11.8%3-21.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% 25.4% 3.94 -4.9%

Draw 22.0% 26.3% 3.80 -9.8%

Away win 54.7% 55.6% 1.80 -1.5%

Over 2.5 54.3% 56.8% 1.76 -4.4%

Over 3.5 33.5% 36.2% 2.76 -7.5%

BTTS 54.6% 59.9% 1.67 -8.8%

Home O1.5 32.1% 32.8% 3.05 -2.1%

Away O1.5 49.1% 54.9% 1.82 -10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob54.6%

A 55% / xG 1.0-1.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 0–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Naftan1.0

Arsenal1.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

NAFTAN · PPG 0.75

ARSENAL · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.81 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Naftan (H) 23.3%

ODDS 3.94 · IMPLIED 25.4% EV -4.9%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.8%

Arsenal (A) 54.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Naftan face Arsenal in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Naftan a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Arsenal 55%, so Arsenal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Naftan and 1.8 for Arsenal (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Naftan are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.62 for Arsenal.

Naftan vs Arsenal Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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