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Slavia Mozyr vs FC Dnepr Mogilev Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 16:45

Slavia Mozyr

PPG 0.75 · HOME

UPCOMING

FC Dnepr Mogilev

PPG 0.62 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-110.4%0-25.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.8%1-113.1%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.1%2-18.3%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.4%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 46.9% 2.13 -5.0%

Draw 26.9% 30.1% 3.32 -6.4%

Away win 28.5% 30.1% 3.32 -3.2%

Over 2.5 50.3% 52.6% 1.90 -4.4%

Over 3.5 28.8% 32.1% 3.12 -6.1%

BTTS 53.1% 58.8% 1.70 -9.7%

Home O1.5 36.1% 46.9% 2.13 -23.1%

Away O1.5 32.1% 34.7% 2.88 -7.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.1%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Slavia Mozyr1.3

FC Dnepr Mogilev1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SLAVIA MOZYR · PPG 0.75

FC DNEPR MOGILEV · PPG 0.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Slavia Mozyr (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.13 · IMPLIED 46.9% EV -5.0%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.32 · IMPLIED 30.1% EV -6.4%

FC Dnepr Mogilev (A) 28.5%

ODDS 3.32 · IMPLIED 30.1% EV -3.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Slavia Mozyr face FC Dnepr Mogilev in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Slavia Mozyr a 45% chance, the draw 27% and FC Dnepr Mogilev 28%, so Slavia Mozyr are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Slavia Mozyr and 1.0 for FC Dnepr Mogilev (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Slavia Mozyr are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 0.62 for FC Dnepr Mogilev.

Slavia Mozyr vs FC Dnepr Mogilev Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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