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Baranovichi vs Bate Borisov Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 13:45

Baranovichi

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bate Borisov

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.28, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-110.9%0-25.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.2%1-113.2%1-26.2%1-31.9%1-4+0.5%2 2-08.6%2-18.0%2-23.7%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.5%3-13.2%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% — — —

Draw 27.3% — — —

Away win 26.8% — — —

Over 2.5 45.9% — — —

Over 3.5 28.8% — — —

BTTS 51.2% — — —

Home O1.5 34.0% — — —

Away O1.5 27.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -60.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.2%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 11.7%

#3 1–0 14.2%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Baranovichi1.2

Bate Borisov0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BARANOVICHI · PPG 1.00

BATE BORISOV · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.28, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Baranovichi (H) 45.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bate Borisov (A) 26.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Baranovichi face Bate Borisov in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Baranovichi a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Bate Borisov 27%, so Baranovichi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Baranovichi and 0.9 for Bate Borisov (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Baranovichi are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.57 for Bate Borisov. This match finished 2-2.

Baranovichi vs Bate Borisov Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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