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Arsenal vs Slavia Mozyr Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 18 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 14:00

Arsenal

PPG 1.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Slavia Mozyr

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-111.0%0-26.2%0-32.3%0-4+0.8%1 1-011.8%1-113.2%1-27.4%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.0%2-17.9%2-24.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.8%3-13.1%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.4% 31.1% 3.22 +26.9%

Draw 26.9% 32.8% 3.05 -10.8%

Away win 33.7% 43.3% 2.31 -22.1%

Over 2.5 49.9% 52.9% 1.89 -5.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 34.0% 2.94 -9.4%

BTTS 53.1% 60.6% 1.65 -12.4%

Home O1.5 31.7% 37.3% 2.68 -15.0%

Away O1.5 34.7% 46.1% 2.17 -24.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -60.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 39% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.8%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 0–1 11.0%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal1.2

Slavia Mozyr1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL · PPG 1.00

SLAVIA MOZYR · PPG 1.29

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.07, combined xG 2.32 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal (H) 39.4%

ODDS 3.22 · IMPLIED 31.1% EV +26.9%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -10.8%

Slavia Mozyr (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.31 · IMPLIED 43.3% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal face Slavia Mozyr in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal a 39% chance, the draw 27% and Slavia Mozyr 34%, so Arsenal are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Arsenal and 1.1 for Slavia Mozyr (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.29 for Slavia Mozyr. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.8%.

Arsenal vs Slavia Mozyr Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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