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FC Gomel vs FC Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:45

FC Gomel

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FC Minsk

PPG 1.43 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.7%0-23.8%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.2%1-112.0%1-25.9%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.4%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.0%3-14.9%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-12.7%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 51.3% 1.95 -6.2%

Draw 26.7% 32.3% 3.10 -10.3%

Away win 25.2% 27.8% 3.60 -5.6%

Over 2.5 50.3% 46.9% 2.13 +7.1%

Over 3.5 28.8% 26.9% 3.72 +4.3%

BTTS 53.1% 52.4% 1.91 +1.4%

Home O1.5 46.3% 48.1% 2.08 -3.7%

Away O1.5 29.6% 25.5% 3.92 +9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 28%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 28%

ROI -60.0%

Bet Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.1%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 0–0 7.8%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Gomel1.6

FC Minsk1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FC GOMEL · PPG 1.75

FC MINSK · PPG 1.43

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FC Gomel (H) 48.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -6.2%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.3%

FC Minsk (A) 25.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -5.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Gomel face FC Minsk in Belarus - Vysshaya Liga on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Gomel a 48% chance, the draw 27% and FC Minsk 25%, so FC Gomel are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for FC Gomel and 1.0 for FC Minsk (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Gomel are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.43 for FC Minsk. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.5%. This match finished 0-1.

FC Gomel vs FC Minsk Prediction— Belarus - Vysshaya Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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