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Ska-khabarovsk vs Ural Prediction— Russia - First League

Regular Season - 4 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 08:00

Ska-khabarovsk

PPG 1.42 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ural

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.2%0-118.2%0-29.6%0-33.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.1%1-112.8%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-04.3%2-14.5%2-22.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.0%3-11.1%3-20.6%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.2% 22.7% 4.40 +11.8%

Draw 31.4% 29.2% 3.42 +7.4%

Away win 41.3% 55.9% 1.79 -26.1%

Over 2.5 37.1% 47.8% 2.09 -22.5%

Over 3.5 17.5% 27.9% 3.58 -22.4%

BTTS 45.4% 52.1% 1.92 -12.8%

Home O1.5 32.6% 25.6% 3.90 +27.1%

Away O1.5 36.3% 49.5% 2.02 -26.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob45.4%

A 41% / xG 0.7-1.1 / U2.5 37% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.2%

#2 0–1 18.2%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 1–0 12.1%

#5 0–2 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ska-khabarovsk0.7

Ural1.1

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.1% · O3.5 PROB 17.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SKA-KHABAROVSK · PPG 1.42

URAL · PPG 1.42

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.35, combined xG 1.76 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ska-khabarovsk (H) 27.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +11.8%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.42 · IMPLIED 29.2% EV +7.4%

Ural (A) 41.3%

ODDS 1.79 · IMPLIED 55.9% EV -26.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ska-khabarovsk face Ural in Russia - First League on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ska-khabarovsk a 27% chance, the draw 31% and Ural 41%, so Ural are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Ska-khabarovsk and 1.1 for Ural (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ska-khabarovsk are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.42 for Ural. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +27.1%.

Ska-khabarovsk vs Ural Prediction— Russia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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