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Gyeongnam FC vs Daegu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 11:00

Gyeongnam FC

PPG 1.70 · HOME

UPCOMING

Daegu FC

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+16.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-15.0%0-24.6%0-32.8%0-4+1.9%1 1-04.8%1-18.8%1-28.1%1-35.0%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.3%2-17.8%2-27.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.5%3-14.6%3-24.2%3-32.6%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-13.0%4+-22.8%4+-31.7%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 28.6% 3.50 +55.0%

Draw 21.9% 27.4% 3.65 -12.0%

Away win 33.8% 52.6% 1.90 -35.8%

Over 2.5 67.2% 57.8% 1.73 +16.3%

Over 3.5 44.0% 35.7% 2.80 +23.2%

BTTS 64.3% 62.5% 1.60 +2.9%

Home O1.5 49.2% 36.4% 2.75 +35.3%

Away O1.5 52.6% 54.6% 1.83 -3.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 23%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob64.3%

H 44% / xG 1.8-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gyeongnam FC1.8

Daegu FC1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GYEONGNAM FC · PPG 1.70

DAEGU FC · PPG 1.44

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.06 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gyeongnam FC (H) 44.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +55.0%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -12.0%

Daegu FC (A) 33.8%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -35.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gyeongnam FC face Daegu FC in South Korea - K League 2 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gyeongnam FC a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Daegu FC 34%, so Gyeongnam FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Gyeongnam FC and 1.8 for Daegu FC (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gyeongnam FC are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.44 for Daegu FC. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +35.3%.

Gyeongnam FC vs Daegu FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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