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Suwon Bluewings vs Gimhae City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 11:00

Suwon Bluewings

PPG 2.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gimhae City

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-15.6%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.3%1-110.1%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.8%2-19.2%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.4%3-15.5%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-13.8%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.8% 78.1% 1.28 -28.6%

Draw 23.4% 19.6% 5.10 +11.6%

Away win 20.8% 11.9% 8.40 +44.8%

Over 2.5 50.3% 60.6% 1.65 -17.0%

Over 3.5 28.8% 38.2% 2.62 -14.7%

BTTS 48.4% 50.0% 2.00 -3.2%

Home O1.5 50.0% 71.4% 1.40 -30.0%

Away O1.5 17.4% 19.0% 5.25 -5.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 23%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.8%

#2 1–0 15.3%

#3 1–1 10.1%

#4 0–0 8.4%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Suwon Bluewings1.8

Gimhae City0.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SUWON BLUEWINGS · PPG 2.00

GIMHAE CITY · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.15 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Suwon Bluewings (H) 55.8%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -28.6%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +11.6%

Gimhae City (A) 20.8%

ODDS 8.40 · IMPLIED 11.9% EV +44.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Suwon Bluewings face Gimhae City in South Korea - K League 2 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Suwon Bluewings a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Gimhae City 21%, so Suwon Bluewings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Suwon Bluewings and 0.7 for Gimhae City (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Suwon Bluewings are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Gimhae City. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +18.3%.

Suwon Bluewings vs Gimhae City Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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