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Hwaseong vs Seoul E-Land FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 11:00

Hwaseong

PPG 1.79 · HOME

UPCOMING

Seoul E-Land FC

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+14.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-16.8%0-25.0%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-07.5%1-110.9%1-28.0%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.8%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.2%3-14.7%3-23.4%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.7%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.7% 34.7% 2.88 +25.9%

Draw 23.1% 29.0% 3.45 -12.2%

Away win 33.2% 45.5% 2.20 -27.0%

Over 2.5 63.4% 55.6% 1.80 +14.1%

Over 3.5 39.5% 33.9% 2.95 +16.5%

BTTS 62.9% 62.5% 1.60 +0.6%

Home O1.5 47.5% 40.8% 2.45 +16.4%

Away O1.5 43.7% 47.6% 2.10 -8.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 23%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.9%

H 44% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 2–2 6.4%

#5 0–0 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hwaseong1.6

Seoul E-Land FC1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HWASEONG · PPG 1.79

SEOUL E-LAND FC · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hwaseong (H) 43.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +25.9%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.2%

Seoul E-Land FC (A) 33.2%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hwaseong face Seoul E-Land FC in South Korea - K League 2 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hwaseong a 44% chance, the draw 23% and Seoul E-Land FC 33%, so Hwaseong are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Hwaseong and 1.5 for Seoul E-Land FC (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hwaseong are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 2.00 for Seoul E-Land FC. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.5%.

Hwaseong vs Seoul E-Land FC Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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