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Gimpo Citizen vs Cheongju Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 11:00

Gimpo Citizen

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cheongju

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-110.7%0-25.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.3%1-113.2%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.6%2-18.1%2-24.4%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.1%3-13.3%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.2% 57.8% 1.73 -28.7%

Draw 28.5% 29.0% 3.45 -1.0%

Away win 30.3% 22.2% 4.50 +36.4%

Over 2.5 50.1% 48.8% 2.05 +2.7%

Over 3.5 28.8% 27.0% 3.70 +3.9%

BTTS 53.1% 52.6% 1.90 +0.9%

Home O1.5 34.0% 51.8% 1.93 -34.4%

Away O1.5 35.4% 25.3% 3.95 +39.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 35 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 23%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -6.1%

Bet Hit 53%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 41% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.0%

#3 1–0 12.3%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gimpo Citizen1.2

Cheongju1.1

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GIMPO CITIZEN · PPG 0.80

CHEONGJU · PPG 1.22

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.16, combined xG 2.31 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gimpo Citizen (H) 41.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -28.7%

Draw 28.5%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -1.0%

Cheongju (A) 30.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +36.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gimpo Citizen face Cheongju in South Korea - K League 2 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gimpo Citizen a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Cheongju 30%, so Gimpo Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Gimpo Citizen and 1.1 for Cheongju (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gimpo Citizen are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.22 for Cheongju. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +39.8%.

Gimpo Citizen vs Cheongju Prediction— South Korea - K League 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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