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West Torrens Birkalla vs Adelaide United II Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 09:30

West Torrens Birkalla

PPG 2.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adelaide United II

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-12.9%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.1%1-17.3%1-23.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.1%2-19.3%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.9%3-24.1%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-09.0%4+-19.3%4+-24.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.8% 74.1% 1.35 -8.5%

Draw 16.7% 20.8% 4.80 -11.9%

Away win 15.5% 16.7% 6.00 -4.2%

Over 2.5 67.3% 78.1% 1.28 -13.9%

Over 3.5 43.0% 59.9% 1.67 -28.2%

BTTS 60.3% 69.4% 1.44 -13.2%

Home O1.5 63.4% 87.7% 1.14 -27.7%

Away O1.5 31.6% 18.2% 5.50 +73.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.3%

H 68% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 2–0 9.1%

#3 1–1 7.3%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

West Torrens Birkalla2.5

Adelaide United II1.0

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WEST TORRENS BIRKALLA · PPG 2.60

ADELAIDE UNITED II · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.52 for Home, form 2.60 vs 1.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

West Torrens Birkalla (H) 67.8%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -8.5%

Draw 16.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -11.9%

Adelaide United II (A) 15.5%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

West Torrens Birkalla face Adelaide United II in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives West Torrens Birkalla a 68% chance, the draw 17% and Adelaide United II 16%, so West Torrens Birkalla are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for West Torrens Birkalla and 1.0 for Adelaide United II (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, West Torrens Birkalla are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.50 for Adelaide United II. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +73.8%.

West Torrens Birkalla vs Adelaide United II Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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