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FK Beograd vs Adelaide City Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 09:30

FK Beograd

PPG 1.90 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adelaide City

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-111.9%0-27.6%0-33.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.2%1-113.1%1-28.3%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.6%2-17.1%2-24.6%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.0%3-12.6%3-21.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 25.0% 4.00 +44.8%

Draw 27.6% 29.4% 3.40 -3.7%

Away win 36.3% 57.1% 1.75 -36.5%

Over 2.5 49.9% 59.9% 1.67 -16.7%

Over 3.5 29.6% 38.2% 2.62 -13.5%

BTTS 53.8% 61.7% 1.62 -12.8%

Home O1.5 30.2% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

Away O1.5 36.6% 57.8% 1.73 -36.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.8%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 9.4%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–2 8.3%

#5 1–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FK Beograd1.1

Adelaide City1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FK BEOGRAD · PPG 1.90

ADELAIDE CITY · PPG 1.80

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.18, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FK Beograd (H) 36.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +44.8%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.7%

Adelaide City (A) 36.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

FK Beograd face Adelaide City in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FK Beograd a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Adelaide City 36%, so Adelaide City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for FK Beograd and 1.3 for Adelaide City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FK Beograd are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 1.80 for Adelaide City. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.8%.

FK Beograd vs Adelaide City Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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