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Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Matchday 20 ·Tuesday, August 11, 2026, 00:30

Sturt Lions

PPG 1.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adelaide Comets

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.46 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.1%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.4%1-17.6%1-23.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.2%2-19.5%2-24.8%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.8%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-18.8%4+-24.5%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.1% — — —

Draw 19.9% — — —

Away win 14.9% — — —

Over 2.5 64.0% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 31.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.5%

H 65% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 9.2%

#3 1–1 7.6%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sturt Lions2.5

Adelaide Comets1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

STURT LIONS · PPG 1.67

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.46 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sturt Lions (H) 65.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Adelaide Comets (A) 14.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sturt Lions face Adelaide Comets in Australia - NPL South Australia on Tuesday, August 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sturt Lions a 65% chance, the draw 20% and Adelaide Comets 15%, so Sturt Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Sturt Lions and 1.0 for Adelaide Comets (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sturt Lions are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.44 for Adelaide Comets.

Sturt Lions vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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