Today / Australia - NPL South Australia / Adelaide Comets vs MetroStars

Adelaide Comets vs MetroStars Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 08:45

Adelaide Comets

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

MetroStars

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.16 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-18.5%0-29.4%0-36.9%0-4+6.4%1 1-04.0%1-18.9%1-29.8%1-37.3%1-4+6.7%2 2-02.1%2-14.7%2-25.2%2-33.8%2-4+3.5%3 3-00.7%3-11.6%3-21.8%3-31.3%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.2% — — —

Draw 23.0% — — —

Away win 58.7% — — —

Over 2.5 63.5% — — —

Over 3.5 40.1% — — —

BTTS 59.9% — — —

Home O1.5 32.1% — — —

Away O1.5 64.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob59.9%

A 59% / xG 1.1-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 1–2 9.8%

#3 0–2 9.4%

#4 1–3 7.3%

#5 0–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Comets1.1

MetroStars2.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.5% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 1.20

METROSTARS · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.16 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Comets (H) 18.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

MetroStars (A) 58.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Comets face MetroStars in Australia - NPL South Australia on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Comets a 18% chance, the draw 23% and MetroStars 59%, so MetroStars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Adelaide Comets and 2.2 for MetroStars (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Comets are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 2.00 for MetroStars.

Adelaide Comets vs MetroStars Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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