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Para Hills Knights vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 09:30

Para Hills Knights

PPG 0.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Adelaide Comets

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-18.4%0-29.1%0-36.5%0-4+5.9%1 1-04.2%1-19.1%1-29.9%1-37.1%1-4+6.4%2 2-02.3%2-15.0%2-25.4%2-33.9%2-4+3.5%3 3-00.8%3-11.8%3-21.9%3-31.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.6%4+-20.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.5% — — —

Draw 21.8% — — —

Away win 61.6% — — —

Over 2.5 63.2% — — —

Over 3.5 40.9% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 56.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob60.3%

A 62% / xG 1.1-2.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 1–2 9.9%

#3 0–2 9.1%

#4 1–3 7.1%

#5 0–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Para Hills Knights1.1

Adelaide Comets2.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PARA HILLS KNIGHTS · PPG 0.20

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.08 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Para Hills Knights (H) 16.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Adelaide Comets (A) 61.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Para Hills Knights face Adelaide Comets in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Para Hills Knights a 17% chance, the draw 22% and Adelaide Comets 62%, so Adelaide Comets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Para Hills Knights and 2.2 for Adelaide Comets (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Para Hills Knights are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 0.50 for Adelaide Comets.

Para Hills Knights vs Adelaide Comets Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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