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Sturt Lions vs Campbelltown City Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 09:30

Sturt Lions

PPG 1.60 · HOME

UPCOMING

Campbelltown City

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.1% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-15.0%0-23.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.9%1-19.9%1-26.1%1-32.5%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.8%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.1%3-16.4%3-24.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-14.9%4+-23.1%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 47.6% 2.10 +12.1%

Draw 22.6% 27.8% 3.60 -11.2%

Away win 23.9% 35.7% 2.80 -19.9%

Over 2.5 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Over 3.5 38.8% 47.6% 2.10 -18.5%

BTTS 61.6% 71.4% 1.40 -13.8%

Home O1.5 54.6% 54.6% 1.83 -0.1%

Away O1.5 36.6% 50.0% 2.00 -26.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 53% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 1–0 7.9%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sturt Lions2.0

Campbelltown City1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

STURT LIONS · PPG 1.60

CAMPBELLTOWN CITY · PPG 0.90

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Sturt Lions (H) 53.4%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +12.1%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.2%

Campbelltown City (A) 23.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sturt Lions face Campbelltown City in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sturt Lions a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Campbelltown City 24%, so Sturt Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sturt Lions and 1.2 for Campbelltown City (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sturt Lions are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.90 for Campbelltown City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +18.9%.

Sturt Lions vs Campbelltown City Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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