Today / Australia - NPL South Australia / MetroStars vs Croydon Kings

MetroStars vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 09:30

MetroStars

PPG 1.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Croydon Kings

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-12.4%0-21.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.9%1-16.5%1-24.3%1-31.9%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.6%2-18.7%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.9%3-17.8%3-25.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-110.0%4+-26.5%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% — — —

Draw 20.7% — — —

Away win 23.4% — — —

Over 2.5 67.4% — — —

Over 3.5 47.2% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 63.4% — — —

Away O1.5 41.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.3%

H 56% / xG 2.7-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 3–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 6.5%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 3–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MetroStars2.7

Croydon Kings1.3

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

METROSTARS · PPG 1.80

CROYDON KINGS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.37 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

MetroStars (H) 55.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Croydon Kings (A) 23.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

MetroStars face Croydon Kings in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MetroStars a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Croydon Kings 23%, so MetroStars are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for MetroStars and 1.3 for Croydon Kings (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MetroStars are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.50 for Croydon Kings.

MetroStars vs Croydon Kings Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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