Today / Australia - NPL South Australia / Adelaide United II vs Para Hills Knights

Adelaide United II vs Para Hills Knights Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 05:30

Adelaide United II

PPG 1.10 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Para Hills Knights

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +2.92 for Home, form 1.10 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-11.0%0-20.3%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.9%1-13.4%1-21.0%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-010.3%2-16.0%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-012.0%3-17.0%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-025.9%4+-115.2%4+-24.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.2% — — —

Draw 16.5% — — —

Away win 8.4% — — —

Over 2.5 67.4% — — —

Over 3.5 47.3% — — —

BTTS 49.6% — — —

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 17.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 71%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)3.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob49.6%

H 75% / xG 3.5-0.6 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 12.0%

#2 4–0 10.5%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 5–0 7.4%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide United II3.5

Para Hills Knights0.6

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE UNITED II · PPG 1.10

PARA HILLS KNIGHTS · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.92 for Home, form 1.10 vs 0.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide United II (H) 75.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Para Hills Knights (A) 8.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide United II face Para Hills Knights in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide United II a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Para Hills Knights 8%, so Adelaide United II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.5 for Adelaide United II and 0.6 for Para Hills Knights (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide United II are averaging 1.10 points per game versus 0.00 for Para Hills Knights. This match finished 5-2.

Adelaide United II vs Para Hills Knights Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

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