Today / Australia - NPL South Australia / Croydon Kings vs Sturt Lions

Croydon Kings vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 05:00

Croydon Kings

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sturt Lions

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.8%0-22.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.7%1 1-05.6%1-18.3%1-26.2%1-33.1%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.1%2-19.0%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.4%3-16.6%3-24.9%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-16.0%4+-24.4%4+-32.2%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% — — —

Draw 22.2% — — —

Away win 24.5% — — —

Over 2.5 67.2% — — —

Over 3.5 44.0% — — —

BTTS 64.3% — — —

Home O1.5 62.4% — — —

Away O1.5 46.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 30%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob64.3%

H 53% / xG 2.2-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.3%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 3–1 6.6%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Croydon Kings2.2

Sturt Lions1.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CROYDON KINGS · PPG 1.40

STURT LIONS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Croydon Kings (H) 53.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sturt Lions (A) 24.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Croydon Kings face Sturt Lions in Australia - NPL South Australia on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Croydon Kings a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Sturt Lions 25%, so Croydon Kings are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Croydon Kings and 1.5 for Sturt Lions (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Croydon Kings are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Sturt Lions. This match finished 1-1.

Croydon Kings vs Sturt Lions Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL South Australia Predictions