Today / Australia - NPL South Australia / Adelaide City vs Playford City Patriots

Adelaide City vs Playford City Patriots Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 10:00

Adelaide City

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Playford City Patriots

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.3%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.0%1-19.2%1-24.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.7%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.9%3-17.1%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.1%4+-16.2%4+-23.2%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.4% — — —

Over 3.5 39.5% — — —

BTTS 56.8% — — —

Home O1.5 61.5% — — —

Away O1.5 32.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 17 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob56.8%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.2%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 3–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide City2.1

Playford City Patriots1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE CITY · PPG 2.40

PLAYFORD CITY PATRIOTS · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide City (H) 56.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Playford City Patriots (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide City face Playford City Patriots in Australia - NPL South Australia on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide City a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Playford City Patriots 21%, so Adelaide City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Adelaide City and 1.0 for Playford City Patriots (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide City are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.33 for Playford City Patriots.

Adelaide City vs Playford City Patriots Prediction— Australia - NPL South Australia

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - NPL South Australia Predictions