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Adelaide Raiders vs The Cove Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 10:00

Adelaide Raiders

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

The Cove

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.69 for Home, form 2.40 vs 1.10 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-12.9%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.0%1-17.4%1-23.0%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.3%2-19.3%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-09.4%3-17.7%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-010.7%4+-18.8%4+-23.6%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% — — —

Draw 17.9% — — —

Away win 17.5% — — —

Over 2.5 64.2% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 63.0% — — —

Away O1.5 20.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 12 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob54.6%

H 65% / xG 2.5-0.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.3%

#2 3–0 9.4%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 1–1 7.4%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Raiders2.5

The Cove0.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE RAIDERS · PPG 2.40

THE COVE · PPG 1.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.69 for Home, form 2.40 vs 1.10 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Raiders (H) 64.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

The Cove (A) 17.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Raiders face The Cove in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Raiders a 65% chance, the draw 18% and The Cove 18%, so Adelaide Raiders are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Adelaide Raiders and 0.8 for The Cove (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Raiders are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.10 for The Cove.

Adelaide Raiders vs The Cove Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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