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Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Cobras Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 05:30

Modbury Jets

PPG 2.20 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Adelaide Cobras

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-12.3%0-20.8%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.8%1-16.2%1-22.2%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.0%2-18.5%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.9%3-17.7%3-22.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-014.5%4+-110.2%4+-23.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.8% 80.0% 1.25 -7.8%

Draw 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

Away win 8.8% 11.8% 8.50 -15.1%

Over 2.5 63.8% 66.7% 1.50 -4.3%

Over 3.5 42.5% 46.9% 2.13 -9.5%

BTTS 51.2% 54.1% 1.85 -5.3%

Home O1.5 63.0% 77.5% 1.29 -18.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 21.7% 4.60 -12.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob51.2%

H 74% / xG 2.7-0.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 3–0 10.9%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 1–0 8.8%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Modbury Jets2.7

Adelaide Cobras0.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MODBURY JETS · PPG 2.20

ADELAIDE COBRAS · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.03 for Home, form 2.20 vs 1.60 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Modbury Jets (H) 73.8%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -7.8%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -7.8%

Adelaide Cobras (A) 8.8%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV -15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Modbury Jets face Adelaide Cobras in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Modbury Jets a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Adelaide Cobras 9%, so Modbury Jets are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Modbury Jets and 0.7 for Adelaide Cobras (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Modbury Jets are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.60 for Adelaide Cobras. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.9%. This match finished 4-0.

Modbury Jets vs Adelaide Cobras Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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