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The Cove vs Fulham United Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 07:30

The Cove

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fulham United

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-18.7%0-25.5%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.6%1-112.2%1-27.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-18.7%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.2%3-14.1%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% — — —

Draw 27.6% — — —

Away win 35.7% — — —

Over 2.5 49.9% — — —

Over 3.5 30.0% — — —

BTTS 53.1% — — —

Home O1.5 45.1% — — —

Away O1.5 36.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.1%

H 37% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 0–0 6.8%

#4 1–2 7.8%

#5 1–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

The Cove1.4

Fulham United1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.0%

Form & verdict PPG

THE COVE · PPG 1.50

FULHAM UNITED · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

The Cove (H) 36.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fulham United (A) 35.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

The Cove face Fulham United in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives The Cove a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Fulham United 36%, so The Cove are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for The Cove and 1.3 for Fulham United (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, The Cove are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.60 for Fulham United.

The Cove vs Fulham United Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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