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Cumberland United vs Adelaide Olympic Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 09:30

Cumberland United

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Adelaide Olympic

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.5%0-24.0%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.9%1-110.0%1-27.3%1-33.6%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-19.1%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.8%3-15.5%3-24.0%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.8%4+-22.7%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 64.5% 1.55 -24.5%

Draw 22.7% 25.6% 3.90 -6.9%

Away win 28.5% 22.7% 4.40 +15.2%

Over 2.5 63.6% 62.5% 1.60 +1.8%

Over 3.5 40.3% 43.3% 2.31 -6.9%

BTTS 62.9% 64.5% 1.55 -2.5%

Home O1.5 49.6% 67.1% 1.49 -26.1%

Away O1.5 43.7% 34.1% 2.93 +28.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 22%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.9%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cumberland United1.8

Adelaide Olympic1.5

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CUMBERLAND UNITED · PPG 1.33

ADELAIDE OLYMPIC · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cumberland United (H) 48.7%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -24.5%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -6.9%

Adelaide Olympic (A) 28.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cumberland United face Adelaide Olympic in Australia - South Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cumberland United a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Adelaide Olympic 28%, so Cumberland United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Cumberland United and 1.5 for Adelaide Olympic (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cumberland United are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.50 for Adelaide Olympic. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +37.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Cumberland United vs Adelaide Olympic Prediction— Australia - South Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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