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Quinns FC vs Gwelup Croatia Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 07:00

Quinns FC

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Gwelup Croatia

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-14.4%0-23.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.1%1-19.0%1-26.6%1-33.2%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.2%2-19.2%2-26.7%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.2%3-16.2%3-24.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-15.0%4+-23.7%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% — — —

Draw 22.5% — — —

Away win 28.1% — — —

Over 2.5 66.9% — — —

Over 3.5 43.0% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 56.2% — — —

Away O1.5 43.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 25.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.3%

H 49% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 2–2 6.7%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Quinns FC2.0

Gwelup Croatia1.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.9% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

QUINNS FC · PPG 1.62

GWELUP CROATIA · PPG 1.11

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Quinns FC (H) 49.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gwelup Croatia (A) 28.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Quinns FC face Gwelup Croatia in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Quinns FC a 49% chance, the draw 23% and Gwelup Croatia 28%, so Quinns FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Quinns FC and 1.5 for Gwelup Croatia (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Quinns FC are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.11 for Gwelup Croatia.

Quinns FC vs Gwelup Croatia Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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