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E. Merida vs Monagas Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Apertura - 12 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 21:00

E. Merida

PPG 1.40 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Monagas

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 75.9% vs bookmaker-implied 45.5% — a clear edge.

+67.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-12.7%0-21.1%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.6%1-16.9%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.2%2 2-011.2%2-19.0%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.7%3-17.8%3-23.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-011.8%4+-19.5%4+-23.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.9% 45.5% 2.20 +67.0%

Draw 14.8% 32.3% 3.10 -54.1%

Away win 9.2% 31.3% 3.20 -70.6%

Over 2.5 66.2% 51.3% 1.95 +29.1%

Over 3.5 44.3% 29.9% 3.35 +48.4%

BTTS 51.1% 58.8% 1.70 -13.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 77%

BTTS 39%

Score Hit 69%

ROI 18.3%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.1%

H 76% / xG 2.6-0.8 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 51%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.2%

#2 3–0 9.7%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 1–0 8.6%

#5 3–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

E. Merida2.6

Monagas0.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

E. MERIDA · PPG 1.40

MONAGAS · PPG 0.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

E. Merida (H) 75.9%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +67.0%

Draw 14.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -54.1%

Monagas (A) 9.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -70.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

E. Merida face Monagas in Venezuela - Primera División on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives E. Merida a 76% chance, the draw 15% and Monagas 9%, so E. Merida are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for E. Merida and 0.8 for Monagas (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 51% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, E. Merida are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.00 for Monagas. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +67.0%. This match finished 3-2.

E. Merida vs Monagas Prediction— Venezuela - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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