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New Town vs University of Tasmania Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 04:30

New Town logo
New Town
PPG 1.57 · HOME
VS
UPCOMING
University of Tasmania logo
University of Tasmania
PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.4%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.8%1-12.0%1-21.1%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-03.9%2-14.3%2-22.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.8%3-16.4%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-021.4%4+-123.5%4+-212.9%4+-34.7%4+-4+1.6%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 76.7%
Draw 15.6%
Away win 7.6%
Over 2.5 82.1%
Over 3.5 64.7%
BTTS 61.6%
Home O1.5 80.3%
Away O1.5 34.7%

League track record

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%
O2.5 75%
BTTS 75%
Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 77%CONFIDENCE
xG (home)4.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.6%

H 77% / xG 4.4-1.1 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 7.0%
#2 4–0 6.4%
#3 3–1 6.4%
#4 5–1 6.2%
#5 3–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New Town4.4
University of Tasmania1.1

COMBINED 5.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.1% · O3.5 PROB 64.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW TOWN · PPG 1.57

UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value
66%
STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.31 for Home, form 1.57 vs 0.86 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

New Town (H) 76.7%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 15.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
University of Tasmania (A) 7.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

New Town face University of Tasmania in Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New Town a 77% chance, the draw 16% and University of Tasmania 8%, so New Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.4 for New Town and 1.1 for University of Tasmania (5.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New Town are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 0.86 for University of Tasmania.

PredictVantage

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