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South Hobart II vs Hobart City Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Matchday 17 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 04:00

South Hobart II

PPG 2.29 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hobart City

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 7.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 84.4% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.1%0-20.1%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-00.4%1-10.7%1-20.6%1-30.3%1-4+0.2%2 2-01.0%2-11.8%2-21.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.9%3-13.4%3-23.0%3-31.8%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-013.6%4+-124.1%4+-221.4%4+-312.6%4+-4+8.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.9% 71.4% 1.40 +3.5%

Draw 16.2% 20.0% 5.00 -11.4%

Away win 9.9% 19.0% 5.25 -28.8%

Over 2.5 84.4% 85.5% 1.17 -1.3%

Over 3.5 70.0% 72.5% 1.38 -3.4%

BTTS 69.6% 79.4% 1.26 -12.3%

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 48.2% 46.1% 2.17 +4.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)5.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob69.6%

H 74% / xG 5.5-1.8 / O2.5 84% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–1 5.1%

#2 4–1 4.7%

#3 5–2 4.6%

#4 4–2 4.1%

#5 3–1 3.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Hobart II5.5

Hobart City1.8

COMBINED 7.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 84.4% · O3.5 PROB 70.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH HOBART II · PPG 2.29

HOBART CITY · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.75 for Home, form 2.29 vs 1.33 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

South Hobart II (H) 73.9%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV +3.5%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -11.4%

Hobart City (A) 9.9%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -28.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Hobart II face Hobart City in Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Hobart II a 74% chance, the draw 16% and Hobart City 10%, so South Hobart II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.5 for South Hobart II and 1.8 for Hobart City (7.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-1. There is a 84% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Hobart II are averaging 2.29 points per game versus 1.33 for Hobart City. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +4.6%. This match finished 3-3.

South Hobart II vs Hobart City Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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