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Taroona vs Glenorchy Knights U21 Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 02:15

Taroona

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Glenorchy Knights U21

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.3%0-20.2%0-30.1%0-4+0.1%1 1-01.1%1-11.6%1-21.1%1-30.5%1-4+0.3%2 2-02.6%2-13.7%2-22.6%2-31.2%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.0%3-15.6%3-24.0%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-016.6%4+-123.2%4+-216.3%4+-37.6%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 76.5% — — —

Draw 15.8% — — —

Away win 7.7% — — —

Over 2.5 82.1% — — —

Over 3.5 68.3% — — —

BTTS 63.3% — — —

Home O1.5 80.3% — — —

Away O1.5 42.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.6 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.3%

H 76% / xG 4.6-1.4 / O2.5 82% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–1 6.5%

#2 5–1 6.0%

#3 3–1 5.6%

#4 4–0 4.6%

#5 4–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Taroona4.6

Glenorchy Knights U211.4

COMBINED 6.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 82.1% · O3.5 PROB 68.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TAROONA · PPG 1.86

GLENORCHY KNIGHTS U21 · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.19 for Home, form 1.86 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Taroona (H) 76.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Glenorchy Knights U21 (A) 7.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Taroona face Glenorchy Knights U21 in Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Taroona a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Glenorchy Knights U21 8%, so Taroona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.6 for Taroona and 1.4 for Glenorchy Knights U21 (6.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-1. There is a 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Taroona are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 0.50 for Glenorchy Knights U21.

Taroona vs Glenorchy Knights U21 Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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