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Olympia Warriors vs Hobart Utd. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 10:15

Olympia Warriors

PPG 2.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hobart Utd.

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-10.7%0-20.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-01.7%1-12.6%1-22.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.5%2 2-03.4%2-15.1%2-23.9%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.4%3-16.7%3-25.1%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-012.0%4+-118.2%4+-213.8%4+-37.0%4+-4+3.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.7% — — —

Draw 16.8% — — —

Away win 18.5% — — —

Over 2.5 80.6% — — —

Over 3.5 61.7% — — —

BTTS 70.3% — — —

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob70.3%

H 65% / xG 3.9-1.5 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 6.7%

#2 4–1 6.5%

#3 2–1 5.1%

#4 5–1 5.1%

#5 3–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Olympia Warriors3.9

Hobart Utd.1.5

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.6% · O3.5 PROB 61.7%

Form & verdict PPG

OLYMPIA WARRIORS · PPG 2.40

HOBART UTD. · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.38 for Home, form 2.40 vs 1.14 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Olympia Warriors (H) 64.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hobart Utd. (A) 18.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Olympia Warriors face Hobart Utd. in Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Olympia Warriors a 65% chance, the draw 17% and Hobart Utd. 19%, so Olympia Warriors are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Olympia Warriors and 1.5 for Hobart Utd. (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Olympia Warriors are averaging 2.40 points per game versus 1.14 for Hobart Utd..

Olympia Warriors vs Hobart Utd. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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