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Glenorchy Knights U21 vs University of Tasmania Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 10:15

Glenorchy Knights U21

PPG 0.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

University of Tasmania

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 6.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.6%0-20.8%0-30.8%0-4+1.1%1 1-00.7%1-12.0%1-22.8%1-32.7%1-4+3.8%2 2-01.2%2-13.3%2-24.7%2-34.4%2-4+6.3%3 3-01.3%3-13.6%3-25.2%3-34.9%3-4+7.0%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-17.1%4+-210.0%4+-39.5%4+-4+13.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.4% — — —

Draw 17.1% — — —

Away win 32.5% — — —

Over 2.5 80.6% — — —

Over 3.5 69.0% — — —

BTTS 72.7% — — —

Home O1.5 77.1% — — —

Away O1.5 69.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob72.7%

H 50% / xG 3.3-2.8 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 73%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.2%

#2 3–3 4.9%

#3 2–2 4.7%

#4 2–3 4.4%

#5 4–2 4.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Glenorchy Knights U213.3

University of Tasmania2.8

COMBINED 6.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.6% · O3.5 PROB 69.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GLENORCHY KNIGHTS U21 · PPG 0.62

UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Glenorchy Knights U21 (H) 50.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

University of Tasmania (A) 32.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Glenorchy Knights U21 face University of Tasmania in Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Glenorchy Knights U21 a 50% chance, the draw 17% and University of Tasmania 33%, so Glenorchy Knights U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for Glenorchy Knights U21 and 2.8 for University of Tasmania (6.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 73% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Glenorchy Knights U21 are averaging 0.62 points per game versus 1.00 for University of Tasmania.

Glenorchy Knights U21 vs University of Tasmania Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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