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South Hobart II vs Taroona Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Regular Season - 16 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 10:15

South Hobart II

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

Taroona

PPG 1.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 2.17 vs 1.57 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.4%0-21.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-02.7%1-14.3%1-23.5%1-31.8%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.3%2-16.8%2-25.5%2-32.9%2-4+1.7%3 3-04.5%3-17.2%3-25.8%3-33.1%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-07.9%4+-112.6%4+-210.1%4+-35.4%4+-4+3.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.9% 70.4% 1.42 -10.7%

Draw 16.3% 20.0% 5.00 -11.1%

Away win 20.7% 21.1% 4.75 -1.0%

Over 2.5 74.5% 85.5% 1.17 -12.8%

Over 3.5 54.0% 71.4% 1.40 -24.4%

BTTS 63.5% 80.0% 1.25 -20.6%

Home O1.5 77.1% — — —

Away O1.5 48.0% 47.6% 2.10 +0.8%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.5%

H 63% / xG 3.2-1.6 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.2%

#2 2–1 6.8%

#3 3–2 5.8%

#4 4–1 5.7%

#5 2–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Hobart II3.2

Taroona1.6

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH HOBART II · PPG 2.17

TAROONA · PPG 1.57

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.56 for Home, form 2.17 vs 1.57 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

South Hobart II (H) 62.9%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -10.7%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -11.1%

Taroona (A) 20.7%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Hobart II face Taroona in Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Hobart II a 63% chance, the draw 16% and Taroona 21%, so South Hobart II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for South Hobart II and 1.6 for Taroona (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Hobart II are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.57 for Taroona. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +0.8%.

South Hobart II vs Taroona Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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