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University of Tasmania vs Taroona Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 04:30

University of Tasmania

PPG 0.14 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Taroona

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.97 for Away, form 0.14 vs 1.38

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.6%0-24.4%0-35.1%0-4+10.4%1 1-01.1%1-13.8%1-26.5%1-37.4%1-4+15.2%2 2-00.8%2-12.8%2-24.7%2-35.4%2-4+11.1%3 3-00.4%3-11.3%3-22.3%3-32.6%3-4+5.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.7%4+-21.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.1% — — —

Draw 15.3% — — —

Away win 63.6% — — —

Over 2.5 74.4% — — —

Over 3.5 54.1% — — —

BTTS 69.6% — — —

Home O1.5 45.4% — — —

Away O1.5 84.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)3.4 BTTS prob69.6%

A 64% / xG 1.5-3.4 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.4%

#2 1–2✓ 6.5%

#3 1–4 6.3%

#4 2–3 5.4%

#5 0–3 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

University of Tasmania1.5

Taroona3.4

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.4% · O3.5 PROB 54.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSITY OF TASMANIA · PPG 0.14

TAROONA · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -1.97 for Away, form 0.14 vs 1.38

Win probability 1X2

University of Tasmania (H) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Taroona (A) 63.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

University of Tasmania face Taroona in Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives University of Tasmania a 21% chance, the draw 15% and Taroona 64%, so Taroona are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for University of Tasmania and 3.4 for Taroona (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, University of Tasmania are averaging 0.14 points per game versus 1.38 for Taroona. This match finished 1-2.

University of Tasmania vs Taroona Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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