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Clarence Zebras II vs New Town Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Regular Season - 16 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 04:30

Clarence Zebras II

PPG 1.43 · HOME

UPCOMING

New Town

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.7% vs bookmaker-implied 89.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-13.9%0-25.6%0-35.3%0-4+7.8%1 1-01.9%1-15.5%1-28.0%1-37.6%1-4+11.2%2 2-01.4%2-13.9%2-25.7%2-35.5%2-4+8.0%3 3-00.7%3-11.9%3-22.7%3-32.6%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.9%4+-21.3%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% 28.6% 3.50 -12.1%

Draw 16.9% 17.4% 5.75 -1.7%

Away win 60.3% 65.4% 1.53 -7.7%

Over 2.5 72.7% 89.3% 1.12 -18.6%

Over 3.5 51.9% 75.2% 1.33 -31.0%

BTTS 63.5% 85.5% 1.17 -25.7%

Home O1.5 45.4% 56.8% 1.76 -20.1%

Away O1.5 70.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob63.5%

A 60% / xG 1.4-2.9 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.0%

#2 1–3 7.6%

#3 1–1 5.5%

#4 2–2 5.7%

#5 0–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Clarence Zebras II1.4

New Town2.9

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 51.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CLARENCE ZEBRAS II · PPG 1.43

NEW TOWN · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.46 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Clarence Zebras II (H) 22.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -12.1%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -1.7%

New Town (A) 60.3%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -7.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Clarence Zebras II face New Town in Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Clarence Zebras II a 23% chance, the draw 17% and New Town 60%, so New Town are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Clarence Zebras II and 2.9 for New Town (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Clarence Zebras II are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 2.14 for New Town.

Clarence Zebras II vs New Town Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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