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Glenorchy Knights U21 vs Hobart Utd. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Matchday 17 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 10:15

Glenorchy Knights U21

PPG 0.89 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hobart Utd.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 7.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.1%0-10.2%0-20.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-00.3%1-10.9%1-21.2%1-31.2%1-4+1.8%2 2-00.7%2-11.9%2-22.7%2-32.6%2-4+3.9%3 3-01.0%3-12.8%3-24.0%3-33.9%3-4+5.7%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-110.3%4+-214.9%4+-314.4%4+-4+21.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.7% — — —

Draw 16.7% — — —

Away win 26.5% — — —

Over 2.5 80.9% — — —

Over 3.5 70.0% — — —

BTTS 75.0% — — —

Home O1.5 78.3% — — —

Away O1.5 69.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 4 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 100%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.4 xG (away)2.9 BTTS prob75.0%

H 57% / xG 4.4-2.9 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 75%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–2 4.5%

#2 4–3 4.3%

#3 3–2 4.0%

#4 5–2 3.9%

#5 3–3 3.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Glenorchy Knights U214.4

Hobart Utd.2.9

COMBINED 7.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.9% · O3.5 PROB 70.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GLENORCHY KNIGHTS U21 · PPG 0.89

HOBART UTD. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

xG gap +1.52 for Home, but form 0.89 vs 1.00 doesn't confirm

Win probability 1X2

Glenorchy Knights U21 (H) 56.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hobart Utd. (A) 26.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Glenorchy Knights U21 face Hobart Utd. in Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Glenorchy Knights U21 a 57% chance, the draw 17% and Hobart Utd. 27%, so Glenorchy Knights U21 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.4 for Glenorchy Knights U21 and 2.9 for Hobart Utd. (7.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-2. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 75% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Glenorchy Knights U21 are averaging 0.89 points per game versus 1.00 for Hobart Utd..

Glenorchy Knights U21 vs Hobart Utd. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania Southern Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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