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Itapirense U20 vs Santos U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 12 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 20:15

Itapirense U20

PPG 1.79 · HOME

UPCOMING

Santos U20

PPG 2.03 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -1.08 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-17.5%0-28.4%0-36.3%0-4+5.9%1 1-03.9%1-18.7%1-29.7%1-37.3%1-4+6.9%2 2-02.2%2-15.0%2-25.6%2-34.2%2-4+4.0%3 3-00.9%3-11.9%3-22.2%3-31.6%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.1% — — —

Draw 21.6% — — —

Away win 55.3% — — —

Over 2.5 64.1% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.5% — — —

Away O1.5 64.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob61.6%

A 55% / xG 1.2-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.4%

#4 1–3 7.3%

#5 0–3 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Itapirense U201.2

Santos U202.2

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ITAPIRENSE U20 · PPG 1.79

SANTOS U20 · PPG 2.03

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -1.08 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Itapirense U20 (H) 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Santos U20 (A) 55.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Itapirense U20 face Santos U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Itapirense U20 a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Santos U20 55%, so Santos U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Itapirense U20 and 2.2 for Santos U20 (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Itapirense U20 are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 2.03 for Santos U20.

Itapirense U20 vs Santos U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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