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Referencia U20 vs Sfera U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 12 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:00

Referencia U20

PPG 0.85 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sfera U20

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-110.0%0-28.7%0-35.0%0-4+3.2%1 1-06.5%1-111.2%1-29.7%1-35.6%1-4+3.6%2 2-03.6%2-16.3%2-25.4%2-33.1%2-4+2.0%3 3-01.3%3-12.3%3-22.0%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.7% — — —

Draw 23.9% — — —

Away win 51.5% — — —

Over 2.5 58.3% — — —

Over 3.5 34.7% — — —

BTTS 54.5% — — —

Home O1.5 30.2% — — —

Away O1.5 47.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.5%

A 52% / xG 1.1-1.7 / O2.5 58% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 8.7%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 0–0 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Referencia U201.1

Sfera U201.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

REFERENCIA U20 · PPG 0.85

SFERA U20 · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.61 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Referencia U20 (H) 24.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sfera U20 (A) 51.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Referencia U20 face Sfera U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Referencia U20 a 25% chance, the draw 24% and Sfera U20 52%, so Sfera U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Referencia U20 and 1.7 for Sfera U20 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Referencia U20 are averaging 0.85 points per game versus 1.21 for Sfera U20.

Referencia U20 vs Sfera U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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