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Caerau (Ely) vs Ynyshir Albions Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:45

Caerau (Ely)

PPG 1.86 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ynyshir Albions

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.6%0-22.5%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.0%1-19.6%1-25.1%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.4%3-16.9%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.7%4+-23.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.5% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 21.1% — — —

Over 2.5 63.0% — — —

Over 3.5 38.9% — — —

BTTS 59.1% — — —

Home O1.5 61.4% — — —

Away O1.5 35.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.1%

H 56% / xG 2.1-1.1 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caerau (Ely)2.1

Ynyshir Albions1.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CAERAU (ELY) · PPG 1.86

YNYSHIR ALBIONS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Caerau (Ely) (H) 56.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ynyshir Albions (A) 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Caerau (Ely) face Ynyshir Albions in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caerau (Ely) a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Ynyshir Albions 21%, so Caerau (Ely) are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Caerau (Ely) and 1.1 for Ynyshir Albions (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caerau (Ely) are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.00 for Ynyshir Albions.

Caerau (Ely) vs Ynyshir Albions Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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