Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Newport City vs Carmarthen Town

Newport City vs Carmarthen Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:30

Newport City

PPG 1.35 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Carmarthen Town

PPG 1.61 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.9%0-23.1%0-31.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.2%1-18.2%1-26.5%1-33.4%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-04.0%3-16.2%3-24.9%3-32.6%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-15.4%4+-24.3%4+-32.3%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 37.0% 2.70 +35.3%

Draw 22.3% 31.3% 3.20 -17.2%

Away win 27.6% 44.4% 2.25 -22.7%

Over 2.5 67.2% 62.5% 1.60 +7.5%

Over 3.5 44.0% 40.2% 2.49 +9.6%

BTTS 64.3% 65.4% 1.53 -1.6%

Home O1.5 61.4% 45.5% 2.20 +35.1%

Away O1.5 48.2% 51.3% 1.95 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob64.3%

H 50% / xG 2.1-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–2✓ 6.5%

#5 3–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newport City2.1

Carmarthen Town1.6

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWPORT CITY · PPG 1.35

CARMARTHEN TOWN · PPG 1.61

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.55 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Newport City (H) 50.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +35.3%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -17.2%

Carmarthen Town (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newport City face Carmarthen Town in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newport City a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Carmarthen Town 28%, so Newport City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Newport City and 1.6 for Carmarthen Town (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newport City are averaging 1.35 points per game versus 1.61 for Carmarthen Town. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +57.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Newport City vs Carmarthen Town Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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