Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Newtown AFC vs Penrhyncoch

Newtown AFC vs Penrhyncoch Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:30

Newtown AFC

PPG 1.65 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Penrhyncoch

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.1%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.6%1-17.7%1-23.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.4%2-19.5%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.8%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.6%4+-18.7%4+-24.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.5% 69.4% 1.44 -10.0%

Draw 20.1% 25.6% 3.90 -13.0%

Away win 17.4% 20.0% 5.00 -7.8%

Over 2.5 64.8% 66.7% 1.50 -2.8%

Over 3.5 43.0% 46.1% 2.17 -6.7%

BTTS 59.9% 63.7% 1.57 -6.0%

Home O1.5 62.8% 70.9% 1.41 -11.5%

Away O1.5 31.8% 31.4% 3.18 +1.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.9%

H 62% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 9.4%

#3 1–1 7.7%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Newtown AFC2.5

Penrhyncoch1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NEWTOWN AFC · PPG 1.65

PENRHYNCOCH · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.46 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Newtown AFC (H) 62.5%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -10.0%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -13.0%

Penrhyncoch (A) 17.4%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Newtown AFC face Penrhyncoch in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Newtown AFC a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Penrhyncoch 17%, so Newtown AFC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Newtown AFC and 1.0 for Penrhyncoch (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Newtown AFC are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.17 for Penrhyncoch. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.3%. This match finished 5-0.

Newtown AFC vs Penrhyncoch Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Wales - FAW Championship Predictions