Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Afan Lido vs Llantwit Major

Afan Lido vs Llantwit Major Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

South · Matchday 2 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:30

Afan Lido

PPG 0.94 · HOME

UPCOMING

Llantwit Major

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.6%0-23.9%0-32.2%0-4+1.4%1 1-05.2%1-18.8%1-27.4%1-34.2%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.2%3-15.4%3-24.5%3-32.6%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-14.0%4+-23.4%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% — — —

Draw 22.6% — — —

Away win 34.8% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 42.6% — — —

BTTS 63.4% — — —

Home O1.5 55.4% — — —

Away O1.5 48.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 30%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.4%

H 43% / xG 1.9-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 3–1 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Afan Lido1.9

Llantwit Major1.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AFAN LIDO · PPG 0.94

LLANTWIT MAJOR · PPG 1.22

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Afan Lido (H) 42.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Llantwit Major (A) 34.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Afan Lido face Llantwit Major in Wales - FAW Championship on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Afan Lido a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Llantwit Major 35%, so Afan Lido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Afan Lido and 1.7 for Llantwit Major (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Afan Lido are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.22 for Llantwit Major.

Afan Lido vs Llantwit Major Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More Wales - FAW Championship Predictions