Today / Wales - FAW Championship / Guilsfield vs Mold Alexandra

Guilsfield vs Mold Alexandra Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

North · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 13:30

Guilsfield

PPG 1.74 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mold Alexandra

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-15.8%0-23.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.2%1-110.7%1-26.2%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.7%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.1%3-16.0%3-23.5%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.1%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 57.1% 1.75 -8.1%

Draw 23.5% 29.4% 3.40 -12.1%

Away win 24.0% 26.7% 3.75 -6.0%

Over 2.5 60.4% 61.7% 1.62 -2.1%

Over 3.5 36.8% 39.7% 2.52 -7.3%

BTTS 59.9% 63.7% 1.57 -6.0%

Home O1.5 52.8% 59.5% 1.68 -11.3%

Away O1.5 35.4% 36.8% 2.72 -3.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 72%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 28%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.9%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guilsfield1.8

Mold Alexandra1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GUILSFIELD · PPG 1.74

MOLD ALEXANDRA · PPG 1.48

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guilsfield (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -8.1%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.1%

Mold Alexandra (A) 24.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guilsfield face Mold Alexandra in Wales - FAW Championship on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guilsfield a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Mold Alexandra 24%, so Guilsfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Guilsfield and 1.2 for Mold Alexandra (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guilsfield are averaging 1.74 points per game versus 1.48 for Mold Alexandra. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +15.6%. This match finished 3-2.

Guilsfield vs Mold Alexandra Prediction— Wales - FAW Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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