Today / Romania - Liga I / Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta

Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 5 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:30

Arges Pitesti

PPG 1.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Farul Constanta

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-19.8%0-23.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.3%1-112.7%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-18.2%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.5%3-13.5%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.0% 46.3% 2.16 +3.7%

Draw 28.1% 31.3% 3.20 -6.0%

Away win 23.9% 31.7% 3.15 -14.8%

Over 2.5 42.7% 46.5% 2.15 -8.2%

Over 3.5 21.1% 25.0% 4.00 -9.4%

BTTS 47.7% 54.1% 1.85 -11.8%

Home O1.5 37.9% 42.6% 2.35 -10.9%

Away O1.5 18.6% 31.3% 3.20 -24.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.7%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–0 16.3%

#4 2–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arges Pitesti1.3

Farul Constanta0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGES PITESTI · PPG 1.91

FARUL CONSTANTA · PPG 0.87

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Arges Pitesti (H) 48.0%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV +3.7%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.0%

Farul Constanta (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arges Pitesti face Farul Constanta in Romania - Liga I on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arges Pitesti a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Farul Constanta 24%, so Arges Pitesti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Arges Pitesti and 0.8 for Farul Constanta (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arges Pitesti are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.87 for Farul Constanta. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%.

Arges Pitesti vs Farul Constanta Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

More Romania - Liga I Predictions