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Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Regular Season - 3 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 18:30

Universitatea Craiova

PPG 2.31 · HOME

UPCOMING

Petrolul Ploiesti

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.6% vs bookmaker-implied 67.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-15.8%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.8%1-110.5%1-24.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.5%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.6%3-15.8%3-22.2%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-13.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% 67.1% 1.49 -17.2%

Draw 22.7% 26.7% 3.75 -8.9%

Away win 21.6% 15.4% 6.50 +24.2%

Over 2.5 52.6% 46.5% 2.15 +13.1%

Over 3.5 29.9% 25.0% 4.00 +11.8%

BTTS 49.9% 45.5% 2.20 +9.8%

Home O1.5 49.7% 55.6% 1.80 -10.5%

Away O1.5 20.3% 17.4% 5.75 +10.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 56% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 1–0 13.8%

#3 1–1 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universitatea Craiova1.8

Petrolul Ploiesti0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSITATEA CRAIOVA · PPG 2.31

PETROLUL PLOIESTI · PPG 0.88

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Universitatea Craiova (H) 55.6%

ODDS 1.49 · IMPLIED 67.1% EV -17.2%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -8.9%

Petrolul Ploiesti (A) 21.6%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universitatea Craiova face Petrolul Ploiesti in Romania - Liga I on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universitatea Craiova a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Petrolul Ploiesti 22%, so Universitatea Craiova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Universitatea Craiova and 0.8 for Petrolul Ploiesti (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universitatea Craiova are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 0.88 for Petrolul Ploiesti. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +40.6%.

Universitatea Craiova vs Petrolul Ploiesti Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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