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Uta Arad vs Rapid Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 7, 2026, 18:00

Uta Arad

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Rapid

PPG 1.35 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-111.9%0-28.2%0-33.7%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.4%1-112.8%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.0%2-16.8%2-24.7%2-32.1%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.8%3-12.4%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.3% 40.8% 2.45 -20.9%

Draw 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

Away win 39.0% 36.8% 2.72 +6.1%

Over 2.5 45.9% 48.8% 2.05 -5.9%

Over 3.5 28.8% 27.0% 3.70 +3.9%

BTTS 49.6% 56.5% 1.77 -12.2%

Home O1.5 32.1% 40.8% 2.45 -21.3%

Away O1.5 43.7% 37.7% 2.65 +15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob49.6%

D 29% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uta Arad1.1

Rapid1.4

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UTA ARAD · PPG 1.50

RAPID · PPG 1.35

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.30, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Uta Arad (H) 32.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -20.9%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.9%

Rapid (A) 39.0%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV +6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uta Arad face Rapid in Romania - Liga I on Friday, August 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uta Arad a 32% chance, the draw 29% and Rapid 39%, so Rapid are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Uta Arad and 1.4 for Rapid (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uta Arad are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.35 for Rapid. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +15.8%.

Uta Arad vs Rapid Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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