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Arges Pitesti vs Csikszereda Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Regular Season - 3 ·Friday, July 31, 2026, 15:30

Arges Pitesti

PPG 1.85 · HOME

UPCOMING

Csikszereda

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.1% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-15.8%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.4%1-19.7%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.5%2-18.2%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.7%3-14.6%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-12.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% 60.6% 1.65 -2.5%

Draw 23.0% 29.0% 3.45 -12.4%

Away win 17.9% 19.2% 5.20 -4.2%

Over 2.5 45.7% 46.5% 2.15 -1.7%

Over 3.5 27.0% 25.3% 3.95 +4.0%

BTTS 45.4% 50.0% 2.00 -9.2%

Home O1.5 49.4% 52.4% 1.91 -5.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 22.2% 4.50 -13.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob45.4%

H 59% / xG 1.7-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.4%

#2 2–0 15.5%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 1–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arges Pitesti1.7

Csikszereda0.5

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 27.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ARGES PITESTI · PPG 1.85

CSIKSZEREDA · PPG 0.76

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Arges Pitesti (H) 59.1%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -2.5%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.4%

Csikszereda (A) 17.9%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arges Pitesti face Csikszereda in Romania - Liga I on Friday, July 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arges Pitesti a 59% chance, the draw 23% and Csikszereda 18%, so Arges Pitesti are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Arges Pitesti and 0.5 for Csikszereda (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arges Pitesti are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 0.76 for Csikszereda. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +8.1%.

Arges Pitesti vs Csikszereda Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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