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Universitatea Craiova vs Arges Pitesti Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 18:30

Universitatea Craiova

PPG 2.45 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Arges Pitesti

PPG 1.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-14.4%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.8%1-19.2%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.2%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.1%3-16.5%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-15.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% 61.3% 1.63 +2.7%

Draw 21.0% 28.2% 3.55 -15.3%

Away win 15.9% 19.2% 5.20 -10.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 48.8% 2.05 +9.7%

Over 3.5 32.3% 27.0% 3.70 +19.5%

BTTS 49.6% 51.3% 1.95 -3.3%

Home O1.5 61.4% 54.1% 1.85 +13.6%

Away O1.5 17.4% 23.1% 4.33 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.6%

H 63% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 9.2%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universitatea Craiova2.1

Arges Pitesti0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSITATEA CRAIOVA · PPG 2.45

ARGES PITESTI · PPG 1.08

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.35 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Universitatea Craiova (H) 63.0%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV +2.7%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -15.3%

Arges Pitesti (A) 15.9%

ODDS 5.20 · IMPLIED 19.2% EV -10.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universitatea Craiova face Arges Pitesti in Romania - Liga I on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universitatea Craiova a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Arges Pitesti 16%, so Universitatea Craiova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Universitatea Craiova and 0.7 for Arges Pitesti (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universitatea Craiova are averaging 2.45 points per game versus 1.08 for Arges Pitesti. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +19.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Universitatea Craiova vs Arges Pitesti Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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