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Petrolul Ploiesti vs Oţelul Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 15:30

Petrolul Ploiesti

PPG 1.68 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Oţelul

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.2%0-113.1%0-27.6%0-33.0%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.5%1-113.4%1-27.8%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-05.9%2-16.8%2-24.0%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.0%3-12.3%3-21.4%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.4% 37.3% 2.68 -15.8%

Draw 33.6% 32.3% 3.10 +4.2%

Away win 34.9% 39.4% 2.54 -11.3%

Over 2.5 44.0% 45.5% 2.20 -3.2%

Over 3.5 22.0% 23.8% 4.20 -4.6%

BTTS 48.4% 54.1% 1.85 -10.5%

Home O1.5 32.1% 35.7% 2.80 -10.1%

Away O1.5 35.4% 37.0% 2.70 -4.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 10 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.4%

D 34% / xG 1.0-1.2 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.2%

#3 0–1 13.1%

#4 1–0✓ 11.5%

#5 1–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Petrolul Ploiesti1.0

Oţelul1.2

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PETROLUL PLOIESTI · PPG 1.68

OŢELUL · PPG 1.16

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.15, combined xG 2.19 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Petrolul Ploiesti (H) 31.4%

ODDS 2.68 · IMPLIED 37.3% EV -15.8%

Draw 33.6%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +4.2%

Oţelul (A) 34.9%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -11.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Petrolul Ploiesti face Oţelul in Romania - Liga I on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Petrolul Ploiesti a 31% chance, the draw 34% and Oţelul 35%, so Oţelul are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Petrolul Ploiesti and 1.2 for Oţelul (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Petrolul Ploiesti are averaging 1.68 points per game versus 1.16 for Oţelul. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +11.9%. This match finished 1-0.

Petrolul Ploiesti vs Oţelul Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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