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FCSB vs Farul Constanta Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 3 ·Monday, August 3, 2026, 18:30

FCSB

PPG 2.03 · HOME

UPCOMING

Farul Constanta

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-15.5%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.0%1-110.2%1-23.7%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.0%3-15.8%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-14.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.7% 60.2% 1.66 -9.2%

Draw 24.2% 27.4% 3.65 -7.0%

Away win 21.1% 21.5% 4.65 -1.1%

Over 2.5 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Over 3.5 28.9% 33.9% 2.95 -8.8%

BTTS 48.7% 57.8% 1.73 -15.8%

Home O1.5 53.6% 57.8% 1.73 -7.3%

Away O1.5 20.3% 29.0% 3.45 -18.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 100%

Score Hit 67%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.7%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.0%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FCSB1.8

Farul Constanta0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FCSB · PPG 2.03

FARUL CONSTANTA · PPG 0.76

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

FCSB (H) 54.7%

ODDS 1.66 · IMPLIED 60.2% EV -9.2%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.0%

Farul Constanta (A) 21.1%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FCSB face Farul Constanta in Romania - Liga I on Monday, August 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FCSB a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Farul Constanta 21%, so FCSB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FCSB and 0.7 for Farul Constanta (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FCSB are averaging 2.03 points per game versus 0.76 for Farul Constanta. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +1.0%.

FCSB vs Farul Constanta Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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