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Tanabi SP U20 vs Flamengo SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 12 ·Friday, August 14, 2026, 18:00

Tanabi SP U20

PPG 0.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flamengo SP U20

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.8%0-27.9%0-34.2%0-4+2.4%1 1-07.3%1-111.7%1-29.3%1-35.0%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.4%2-17.0%2-25.6%2-33.0%2-4+1.7%3 3-01.7%3-12.8%3-22.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 41.0% — — —

Over 2.5 59.5% — — —

Over 3.5 36.5% — — —

BTTS 60.3% — — —

Home O1.5 31.7% — — —

Away O1.5 47.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 76 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -55.6%

Bet Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob60.3%

A 41% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 0–1 9.8%

#4 0–0 6.2%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tanabi SP U201.2

Flamengo SP U201.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TANABI SP U20 · PPG 0.80

FLAMENGO SP U20 · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tanabi SP U20 (H) 34.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Flamengo SP U20 (A) 41.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tanabi SP U20 face Flamengo SP U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, August 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tanabi SP U20 a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Flamengo SP U20 41%, so Flamengo SP U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Tanabi SP U20 and 1.6 for Flamengo SP U20 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tanabi SP U20 are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.20 for Flamengo SP U20.

Tanabi SP U20 vs Flamengo SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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